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House price falls may be ending, but do not expect another boom

Don't take my word for it. A veritable army of tipsters have called the bottom over recent weeks. They include property analysis firms SQM Research, Domain and CoreLogic, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver — who was one of the first to tip the big downturn — BIS Oxford Economics, ANZ, and even the Reserve Bank.

"Conditions in the established housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne had improved a little since the previous meeting," RBA board members noted at their last meeting.

"Housing prices had stabilised in June in these cities and auction clearance rates had picked up further, albeit still on low volumes."

The RBA is the closest thing to "the house" in the casino that the Australian market has become — not because it stands to profit from rising prices, but because the economy and financial system it manages stands to lose their shirts if the market goes bust. It's also one of the few institutions that can dramatically alter the odds at the stroke of a pen, through interest rate moves.

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